China's military exercise around Taiwan: a threat to peace and stability

China has significantly intensified its military threats against Taiwan

On October 14, 2024, China conducted a significant military exercise, code-named “Joint Sword – 2024B,” in the waters surrounding Taiwan, a move that has raised alarms regarding the stability of the Taiwan Strait and the broader implications for regional and global security. It was the second military exercise conducted by the Chinese military around Taiwan since President William Lai took office on May 20. The juxtaposition of these events underscores the escalating tensions in the region and highlights the urgent need for the international community to respond to China's increasingly aggressive posture.

The military drill, involving 153 Chinese military aircraft, and 34 naval vessels and coast guard ships, conducted joint assaults close to Taiwan, focuses on maritime maneuvers and aerial operation and joint patrols, port and area control, strikes against land and sea targets, and seizing comprehensive governance, showcasing China's military capabilities and its readiness to assert control over Taiwan, and testing the joint operational capabilities of the Eastern Theater Command. During the exercise, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sailed through the Bashi Channel, which lies between Taiwan’s Orchid Island and the Philippines’ Mavulis Island, to enter the Western Pacific. In conjunction with gray zone conflicts, the Chinese Coast Guard followed up with law enforcement, publicly announcing for the first time that four fleets circled Taiwan in a counterclockwise direction. 

From Taiwan’s presidential election in January to August, China has conducted an average of three to four joint combat readiness patrols each month, indicating that this has become a regular occurrence. This show of force is not merely a demonstration of military prowess; it is a clear signal to Taiwan and the international community that China is willing to escalate tensions in pursuit of its objectives. Such actions undermine the fragile peace that has existed in the Taiwan Strait and pose a direct threat to the stability of the region.

President Lai’s National Day speech emphasizing Taiwan’s sovereignty and democracy 

This military comes four days after President Lai delivered speech on Taiwan’s National Day, reaffirming Taiwan's commitment to defend sovereignty and democratic values. He called for peaceful dialogue and cooperation while reiterating the resolve of 23 million Taiwanese people to stand firm against external pressures and affirmed Taiwan’s identity as a sovereign state, and making it clear that Taiwan would not bow to intimidation. President Lai’s message is crystal clear to reinforce a strong sense of national pride and unity. However, the drill is a direct challenge to these sentiments, reflecting the ongoing tensions in cross-strait relations. It is also a clear indication that Beijing is unwilling to engage in constructive dialogue, instead determined to escalate its military posture in response to perceived challenges to its sovereignty claims over Taiwan, and to use force if necessary.  

The Taiwan Strait is a critical maritime corridor, with a significant portion of global trade passing through its waters. Any disruption of merchant traffic in this area could have catastrophic consequences for the global economy. Estimates suggest that such disruptions could wipe trillions of dollars from global GDP and severely damage supply chains that are already under strain from various geopolitical tensions and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

China has continuously increased defense budget and expanded military footprints

Over the past decade, China has significantly increased its defense budget, reflecting its growing political ambitions and military capabilities. According to official reports, China's defense spending has consistently risen, reaching $232 billion in 2024, a stark contrast to its defense budget of around $100 billion a decade ago. It is widely believed that China’s annual defense spending is much higher than it actually is by omitting funding for paramilitary organizations, military research and development, and many ongoing military operations. However, this substantial increase underscores Beijing's strategy to modernize its military forces and expand its influence both regionally and globally. In comparison, Taiwan's defense budget for 2024 stands at about $19 billion, highlighting the vast disparity in military spending between the two sides. This difference not only emphasizes the challenges Taiwan faces in terms of defense but also raises concerns about the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait.

China's military buildup has been particularly evident in the South China Sea, where it has expanded its presence through the construction of artificial islands and military bases. These developments have allowed China to assert its territorial claims over disputed waters, leading to heightened tensions with neighboring countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia. The South China Sea is a critical maritime route for global trade, and China's aggressive posture has raised alarms among regional powers and the international community. The militarization of this area, coupled with China's assertive claims, has created an environment of uncertainty and instability, particularly for Taiwan.

Furthermore, China's ambitions extend beyond its immediate borders through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This massive infrastructure project aims to enhance connectivity across Asia, Europe, and Africa, but it also includes the establishment of military bases and ports in strategic locations. By investing in these facilities, China seeks to secure its maritime interests and project power far beyond its shores. This expansion of military infrastructure has implications for regional security, as it allows China to exert influence over key shipping lanes and establish a foothold in areas traditionally dominated by Western powers.

China's increased defense budget over the past decade reflects its ambitions to expand its military footprint and political influence. The disparity in defense spending between China and Taiwan highlights the challenges Taiwan faces in ensuring its security. As China continues to assert its claims in the South China Sea and expand its overseas military infrastructures, the region faces heightened tensions and uncertainty. The geopolitical implications of China's actions are significant, impacting not only the Taiwan Strait but also the broader security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region.

Moreover, China's support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, framed as a stance of neutrality, further complicates the geopolitical landscape. This alignment with Russia has raised questions about China's intentions and its willingness to challenge the existing international order. The implications of this partnership extend to the Indo-Pacific region, where China's actions are viewed with skepticism by many nations concerned about its growing assertiveness.

What the international community can do to urge China to cease military provocations

The international community must recognize the gravity of the situation and take a stand against China's irresponsible and dangerous actions.  Diplomatic efforts should be intensified to urge China to cease its military provocations and engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan.  The United States, European Union, and other nations with vested interests in maintaining stability in the Asia-Pacific region should coordinate their responses, emphasizing the importance of peace and security in the Taiwan Strait.

In addition to diplomatic measures, it is crucial for the international community to bolster its support for Taiwan. This support can take various forms, including providing military equipment, intelligence sharing, sending naval vessels through the Taiwan Strait, supporting Taiwan’s international participation, and establishing cooperation in the areas of cybersecurity, disinformation, civil defense, and cognitive warfare. By strengthening Taiwan's defense capabilities, the international community can deter further aggression from China and reinforce the message that any attempt to alter the status quo of the Taiwan Strait or suppress democratic Taiwan through force will be met with a united response.

Furthermore, the media and public discourse should also play a vital role in raising awareness about the implications of China's military actions. A well-informed public can pressure governments to take a firmer stance against China's provocations and advocate for policies that promote peace and stability in the region. This includes highlighting the potential economic fallout from disruptions in the Taiwan Strait and the importance of maintaining open and secure maritime routes for global trade.

Maintaining freedom and peace in the Taiwan Strait is an international consensus 

The Taiwan Strait is strategically vital sea corridor, serving as a critical passage for regional security and global trade. It is international waters and is by no means the internal sea claimed by China. Its significance is heightened by the geopolitical tensions in the region, making it a focal point for military presence and strategic maneuvering, thereby influencing the stability and security of the broader Indo-Pacific region. Maintaining freedom, openness, and peace in the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific region has become an international consensus. 

Taiwan no only occupies a central position in the firs island chain in terms of security but also plays a key role in the non-Red supply chain and the global democratic value chain economically. China's continued military exercise around Taiwan represents a significant escalation in tensions that threatens the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait, and underscores the importance and urgency of dialogue and diplomacy in addressing the challenges posed by rising nationalism and geopolitical competition. 

The potential economic repercussions of any disruption in the Taiwan Strait are too severe to ignore. The international community must respond decisively to these irresponsible and dangerous actions by calling on China to cease its military provocations and engage in constructive dialogue, and work together to ensure that peace prevails in this critical region. By standing in solidarity with Taiwan and reinforcing the principles of sovereignty and democracy, the global community can help deter further aggression and promote a stable and prosperous future for all. (E)