Iran's attack on Israel is the start of a larger confrontation - expert

RIGA - Iran's attack on Israel is the beginning of a larger confrontation, Maris Andzans, Director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies and Associate Professor at Riga Stradins University, told LETA.

Andzans stressed that everything now depends on further Israeli actions. The expert mentioned that in April, Iran had fired even more missiles at Israel. At the time, these were cruise missiles and drones, which fly more slowly and are easier to shoot down. At that time, the international community called on Israel to show restraint and Israel responded with limited strikes on Iranian territory, but unlike the April attack, this one used more ballistic missiles against Israel. Israel had less time to react and more difficulty in shooting down the missiles.

The Director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies stressed that this time Israel promises a stronger response. In his view, it could be a large-scale attack with ballistic missiles, possibly Iran could be hit by air strikes. It is not a simple task, Andzans pointed out, as Jordan, Syria and Iraq are the countries located between Israel and Iran. The expert pointed out that Israel has very good military capabilities, including F-35 fighter jets, which are among the most advanced in the world. He also did not rule out that Israel would attack Iran in cyberspace. In 2010, the famous Stuxnet was unveiled, the first known cyber weapon that can have consequences also in the physical space from the virtual environment.

"The question is the extent of the response. Israel will certainly try to destroy rocket launch sites, which will not be easy. Israel could also use this situation to try to strike at the sites of Iran's nuclear program. Israel has long vowed to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power," said the RSU associate professor.

He said Israel could use the situation to take a broader approach against Iran and prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. Its objective could also be to destroy Iran's ability to retaliate in order to further limit Iran's ability to escalate the situation. In the expert's view, this fits in with the "bigger picture" - Israel is going after almost all its enemies. One is the fight against Hamas and other terrorist groups in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, then there is the fight against Hizbollah. Israel also occasionally strikes Syrian territory, Houthi rebel positions and infrastructure in Yemen.

Asked how this would affect the security situation in the region as a whole, Andzans said that unless Israel succeeded in significantly limiting the capabilities of the Houthis, Hamas, Hizbollah and Iran, the situation would become more dangerous.

As to how an Iranian attack on Israel would affect global security issues, the Director of the Center for the Study of Geopolitics said that "sustained instability" would have to be taken into account. He stressed that this was nothing new, adding that in such a situation the war in Ukraine would receive less attention. At the moment, all attention is focused on the Middle East.

Israel is a key US ally and a more important partner than Ukraine, as demonstrated by the US involvement in repelling Iranian attacks, Andzans explained. For example, the US does not help Ukraine to shoot down Russian missiles, but it does for Israel. He added that this has a long history, as the US has always stressed that its obligation towards Israel is both moral and strategic. It is also no secret that in the US the representation of Israeli interests is extremely strong.

As to how the situation in the Middle East will affect the war in Ukraine and whether this means that Iran will be less able to help Russia, Andzans said that Iran has already helped Russia enough with the Shahed drones, which Russia itself is now producing, and ballistic missiles. Iran, he said, has already handed over its expertise.

The expert stressed that Iran could certainly no longer help Russia in this way, but that Russia did not need it that much anymore either. In his view, Russia is moving forward in Eastern Ukraine with variable success, but with considerable losses. In addition, Russia has other friends - tyrants, including North Korea.

"Rather, Russia has benefited from this, because the attention of the US and the West is once again diverted. Not only decision-makers in the US, but also the military need to focus on what is happening in the Middle East. This could possibly have an impact on the supply of arms to Ukraine," said the RSU associate professor.

He explained that the war in Gaza and the fight against Hizbollah is geographically limited, but if there is an escalation with Iran, the US will have to deploy more air defense capabilities to help Israel, and it is not impossible that in the event of an escalation, it will also have to help with long-range weapons, which is exactly what Ukraine is asking of the US. Putting all this together would certainly not be to Ukraine's advantage, he concluded.