NATO's door opens to Baltics

The Baltic states are at the top of the list of countries looking to join NATO and stand a strong chance of winning invitations this year, alliance officials said at a conference here last weekend.

Up to seven Central and Eastern European countries are expected to have their applications accepted when NATO meets in the Czech capital, Prague, in November, with Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia joining the Balts on the short list.

Speaking in a videotaped message to delegates at the Riga summit - dubbed "The Bridge to Prague" - U.S. President George W. Bush said a bigger NATO would consolidate democracy in Europe and empower the alliance, formed more than half a century ago to defend the continent from Stalin's Russia, to fight the new menace of the 21st century: international terrorism.

"We seek a new Europe that has buried its historic tensions and is prepared to meet global challenges beyond Europe's borders," Bush said. "NATO must prepare itself to fight terror....and new members will help improve NATO's capabilities."

Other leaders, including British Prime Minster Tony Blair, who also addressed the summit with a videotaped message, rallied behind what the White House has referred to as "robust enlargement."

U.S. Senate Republican leader Trent Lott told journalists on the eve of the summit that the Senate is likely to support enlargement once invitations are meted out in Prague, and he said the Baltics are assured of strong support.

"If I could vote now, my vote would be 'yes,'" he said after a meeting with the three Baltic presidents.

"This is the first time we have received such a clear message that NATO welcomes enlargement and that we have received support from all member countries," said Latvian Prime Minister Andris Berzins.

A major reason for the shift in favor of enlargement, observers say, is the post-Sept. 11 realignment of power in the world.

Less than a year ago, membership for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania was among the most contentious and divisive issues in rebuilding the post-Cold War Europe.

Russia, irked by the admission of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic in 1999, drew the line at membership for the ex-Soviet Baltic states, claiming NATO members on its western border would be viewed as a threat.

Rapprochement between Washington and Moscow since the two began cooperating in the war on terror - and an expanded role for Russia in NATO decisions - has convinced the Kremlin to soften its stance.

Romania and Bulgaria have also had their bids boosted by Sept. 11. Once seen as unlikely to be invited because of lagging democratic and economic reforms, the two have reportedly won backers in Washington for allowing the United States to use their strategically located bases in the war on terrorism.

Slovakia, however, has been warned that it will lose support for membership should voters return nationalist and anti-Western former Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar to power in elections this fall.

Albania, Croatia and Macedo-nia - also represented in Riga - are also candidates, though NATO has said they are not yet ready to join.

Aspirant countries pledged to continue reforms even after winning invitations and to work with other NATO members to combat terrorism and other threats.

"We recognize that we are in the midst of a historical endeavor, not only to defend our democracies from the threat posed by terrorism, but also to build a Europe that is truly whole and free," a declaration adopted at the Riga summit read.

But delegates also said a "big bang" enlargement is also crucial to finally solidifying democracy and stability in Europe, freeing the United States and its allies to focus on combating new threats emanating from beyond Europe's borders.

"If NATO had not expanded four years ago to Central Europe, the zone of instability right now would be Central Europe. If it never intended to come to the Baltics, that would be the area of instability," said Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former national security adviser to U.S. President Jimmy Carter. "So to draw a line rigidly now would be absurd."

Some are calling for concerted efforts to push that line even further east. Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski said a top goal of a bigger NATO should be to court Ukraine, which has expressed a desire to join.

"With all seriousness we are considering the vision of Ukrainian membership in the alliance. This country has huge potential for the defense industry, which can be an important element in complementing NATO's defense capabilities," he said in a speech July 5.

Most concede the former Soviet nation is years away from meeting the democratic and economic criteria for NATO membership. But a desire in Kiev to join the alliance may convince leaders there to speed up reforms.

Those countries who win invitations this year, though, were warned to keep up the pace of military reforms once invitations are granted, as the legislatures of all 19 existing NATO members must ratify enlargement before it become official, a procedure expected to take until mid-2004.

All three Baltic states are spending at least 2 percent of GDP on defense and pledged to continue fine-tuning small but effective militaries that can specialize in specific defense areas that will add to NATO's overall capabilities.

"We will not rest on our laurels," Berzins promised.

Added Estonian Prime Minister Siim Kallas, "We don't do these reforms for NATO or the European Union, we do them for life." "We recognize that we are in the midst of a historical endeavor, not only to defend our democracies from the threat posed by terrorism, but also to build a Europe that is truly whole and free," a declaration adopted at the Riga summit read.

But delegates also said a "big bang" enlargement is also crucial to finally solidify democracy and stability in Europe, freeing the United States and its allies to focus on combating new threats emanating from beyond Europe's borders.

"If NATO had not expanded four years ago to Central Europe, the zone of instability right now would be Central Europe. If it never intended to come to the Baltics, that would be the area of instability," said Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former national security adviser to U.S. President Jimmy Carter. "So to draw a line rigidly now would be absurd."

Some are calling for concerted efforts to push that line even further east. Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski said a top goal of a bigger NATO should be to court Ukraine, which has expressed a desire to join.

"With all seriousness we are considering the vision of Ukrainian membership in the alliance. This country has huge potential for the defense industry, which can be an important element in complementing NATO's defense capabilities," he said in a speech July 5.

Most concede the former Soviet nation is years away from meeting the democratic and economic criteria for NATO membership. But a desire in Kiev to join the alliance may convince leaders there to speed up reforms.

Those countries who win invitations this year, though, were warned to keep up the pace of military reforms once invitations are granted, as the legislatures of all 19 existing NATO members must ratify enlargement before it becomes official, a procedure expected to take until mid-2004.

All three Baltic states are spending at least 2 percent of GDP on defense and pledged to continue fine-tuning small but effective militaries that can specialize in specific defense areas that will add to NATO's overall capabilities.

"We will not rest on our laurels," Berzins promised.

Added Estonian Prime Minister Siim Kallas, "We don't do these reforms for NATO or the European Union, we do them for life."