VILNIUS – The Baltic power transmission system operators on Tuesday notified Russia and Belarus officially of the non-extension of the so-called BRELL contract and their withdrawal from the Moscow-controlled post-Soviet electricity system in February 2025, which, according to former Lithuanian energy ministers signifies another step of the three countries towards Western Europe.
Zygimantas Vaiciunas, who headed the Energy Ministry between 2016 and 2020, says that Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have taken both a legal and a symbolic step towards Western Europe.
“On the one hand, this is an important legal step from the Baltic States, on the other hand, it is a very strong symbolic step, which means the beginning of the de-synchronization of the Baltic States from the IPS/UPS system,” Vaiciunas, current vice-president of the Confederation of Industrialists, told BNS on Tuesday.
“It has been a really long road to this notification, a long way to go. Of course, first of all, all the necessary infrastructure has been prepared, operational actions have been prepared,” he said.
According to Jarek Niewierowicz, who served as Energy Minister from 2012 to 2014, the notification by the Baltic States of their intention not to renew the BRELL contract shows that the synchronization process is nearing completion.
“It should be seen as the removal of the last umbilical cord from the post-Soviet world for Lithuanian energy, and thus for the Lithuanian economy. It means full maturity of the energy system, preparation for full independent operation, further empowerment of all power generation projects," Niewierowicz, who stepped down as a presidential adviser last week, told BNS on Tuesday.
“This is ... a final confirmation that all three Baltic countries, including at the level of transmission system operators, see this project in the same way, as a priority. And that the synchronization needs to be completed as soon as possible,” he said.
According to Vaiciunas, the Lithuanian energy system is ready to work in synchronous mode with the European grids, although it will still have to complete technical preparations, such as tests of synchronous compensators, in the next six months. Three of them have been installed in Lithuania in preparation for the disconnection from BRELL.
Vaiciunas warned that Russia or Belarus might take provocative actions in response to this decision of the Baltic States, but the probability of them was not high. According to him, the companies have a plan of action to respond to possible provocations.
“There could be provocations, but we are certainly prepared to deal with them,” he said.
Niewierowicz stressed that the Baltic countries' preparations for synchronization are relevant to Russia's Kaliningrad Region, and that by giving advance notice of non-renewal of the BRELL contract, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are showing that their behavior "is in line with the standards of the Western world".
Rokas Masiulis, CEO of Lithuania's TSO Litgrid, has previously told BNS that Kaliningrad Region is ready to operate in isolation and the synchronization of the Baltic States should not affect the Russian exclave.
The Baltic countries had until August 7 to notify Russia and Belarus of the non-renewal of the BRELL contract, six months before the planned synchronization with the Continental Europe Synchronous Area.
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